Navigating the 2025 Smartphone Market: Key Insights for Manufacturers, Retailers and Mobile Operators

India rises to 2nd Place in Global Smartphone Sales, 3rd in Market Value

These days, every single person in India seems to have a smartphone. Actually, these days, every single person in India seems to have more than one smartphone. So, it comes as no surprise that, according to the latest data estimates, India has moved to second in the list of the world’s largest smartphone buyers in terms of volume and third in terms of value.

Independent researches were conducted by Counterpoint Research and Canalys and both have made the same observations. According to Counterpoint Research, India accounted for 15.5% of global smartphone shipments in Q3 of 2024. By value, India accounted for 12.3% of the global market.

Global Leaders for Volume and Value

In Q3 of 2024, China led the global smartphone market in terms of both volume and value. Talking about units sold, China led by 22% around the world, followed by India at 15.5% and USA at 12%.

And if we consider the value, China maintained its dominance with 31% of total global sales followed by USA at 19%. India came in third at 12.1%.

In Q3, smartphone shipments in India grew by 3% year on year while value surged 12% year on year. This is an all-time quarterly high for the country.

Top Selling Smartphones Globally

Samsung continues to lead the worldwide market in terms of shipment with a 19% volume share. Samsung was followed by Apple in second place while Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo completed the top 5.

Samsung led with 57.5 million shipments, followed by Apple with a record 54.5 million units mainly due to iPhone 16’s strong launch in emerging markets.

Xiaomi held third with 42.8 million units, Oppo came in fourth with 28.6 million and Vivo finished fifth with 27.2 million units.

Tarun Pathak, Research Director at Counterpoint Research, said: “The global smartphone market has reached maturity, and shipments are expected to remain stable in the coming years. Growth will likely be driven by emerging markets like India, MEA and Southeast Asia. New technologies like GenAI and foldables are also likely to drive ASP growth as adoption rates rise. By 2028, we expect more than half of smartphones shipped to be GenAI capable as broader use cases continue to emerge and availability expands across price segments.”

Reasons for Growth in Demand in India

With an early start to the festive season in 2024, India saw a tremendous demand for smartphones in Q3. With people gifting phones to loved ones and also upgrading their own models, smartphones was one of the most sought-after categories in this quarter.

New models – Especially the iPhone 16 – launching around this time of the year coupled with massive discounts and sales available are more reasons why Q3 always performs well for the smartphone industry in India.

Neil Shah, co-founder of Counterpoint Research, says, “India remains one of the most underrated yet high-sale markets, with a smartphone base of 690 million out of a population of 1.4 billion. With the ongoing premiumisation trend, there’s considerable room for value growth as many users upgrade to their third or fourth phone.”

The Last Word

With India’s cementing its position as the second largest smartphone consumers in the world, this change is reflective of a dynamic consumer landscape. With nearly half the population still to adopt smartphones and with the premiumisation trend steadily unfolding, there is a lot of untapped market potential within India.

Looking ahead, the smartphone industry is very likely to see a robust growth in India thanks especially to festive demand, new product launches and technological advancements like GenAI capabilities.

Q3 of 2024 might have been record-breaking but it looks like India’s smartphone market is just warming up!

Jan Lorbach

The global smartphone market is a tale of contrasts, marked by both exhilarating growth and formidable challenges. As we navigate through this dynamic landscape, regional variations and a strong trend towards premiumization emerge as key themes. For manufacturers, retailers, and mobile operators, understanding these shifts is crucial to seizing opportunities and overcoming hurdles. Let’s delve into the latest market developments and uncover the strategies that can drive success in this ever-evolving industry.

Key Market and Consumer Trends

The global smartphone market grew by 1% overall in 2024, reaching 826 million units. The first half of 2024 kicked off with strong momentum, showcasing a promising year-over-year increase in demand. However, this momentum waned in the latter half, particularly in Q4, resulting in a slight dip compared to the previous year. Despite this, October shone brightly as the peak revenue month of the last quarter. Regional disparities were stark, with Emerging Asia, the Middle East, and China leading the charge in growth. This underscores the critical need for manufacturers and retailers to strategically target these high-growth regions to maximize their opportunities.

Recent data reveals that 71% of consumers now renew their devices every three years. This prolonged usage period reduces the addressable market, creating challenges for manufacturers who depend on frequent upgrades to boost sales. To counter this trend, manufacturers must focus on offering compelling incentives for consumers to upgrade sooner. Introducing innovative features and cutting-edge technologies that significantly enhance the user experience can be key strategies in encouraging earlier renewals.

Premiumization and Mid-Range Growth

The ongoing trend of premiumization is significantly influencing the market. As consumers increasingly seek higher performance and advanced features, prices are rising in tandem with innovation. This scenario presents lucrative upselling opportunities for manufacturers and retailers, who can highlight the enhanced value and benefits of premium devices. Retailers can capitalize on this trend by offering appealing financing options and installment plans, making premium devices more accessible to budget-conscious consumers.

Simultaneously, the mid-range market segment is experiencing significant growth, driven by brands offering strong value-for-money propositions that resonate with price-sensitive consumers. Mid-range devices are now incorporating features that were once exclusive to high-end models, such as advanced camera systems, faster processors, and better display quality. This trend highlights the substantial market potential for mid-range devices, where manufacturers can focus on delivering high-quality features at competitive prices. Retailers should emphasize the benefits and affordability of these devices to attract a broader consumer base.

Product Portfolios and Operator Dynamics

In 2024, a significant portion of revenue was derived from older models, with new releases maintaining a similar market share as in 2023. This strategy of keeping older models available for purchase enables companies to cater to lower-income consumers while still offering flagship features. Retailers and mobile operators can capitalize on this trend by emphasizing the longevity, value, and advanced features of older models, making them an attractive option for budget-conscious consumers. This approach not only broadens the consumer base but also maximizes the lifecycle value of each product.

There is also a noticeable shift in consumer behavior towards purchasing SIM-free phones, driven by the desire for greater flexibility and control over their mobile plans. As the prices of SIM-free phones rise alongside contracted phones, budget-conscious consumers are increasingly opting for instalment payment plans to manage their expenses more effectively. Mobile operators can capitalize on this trend by bundling handset instalments with monthly plans, offering a more attractive and manageable payment structure for consumers. This approach not only helps in attracting new customers but also aids in retaining existing ones by providing them with the flexibility they seek.

AI Integration

AI integration in smartphones is rapidly increasing, with a third of AI-related revenues coming from devices equipped with AI processors in Q4 2024. This trend presents significant upselling opportunities, particularly for premium devices. Manufacturers can leverage AI technology to differentiate their products and offer enhanced user experiences, such as improved camera functionalities, personalized recommendations, and advanced security features. However, regional variations in adoption rates highlight the need for tailored marketing strategies. Barriers such as privacy concerns and a lack of compelling use cases still hinder widespread adoption. To overcome these challenges, manufacturers and mobile operators should focus on addressing privacy issues transparently and demonstrating the practical benefits of AI to consumers. By showcasing how AI can simplify daily tasks, enhance productivity, and provide personalized experiences, they can drive greater consumer acceptance and adoption of AI-enabled smartphones.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the smartphone market in 2025 offers a mix of opportunities and challenges for manufacturers, retailers, and mobile operators. By strategically navigating trends such as extended device renewal cycles, premiumization, growth in the mid-range market, AI integration, and shifting consumer behavior towards SIM-free phones, industry players can effectively position themselves for success. Understanding and adapting to consumer behavior will be key in thriving within this dynamic and competitive landscape.

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